RISK PERCEPTION AND COMMUNICATION MODELING IN THE COVID-19
ERA: STUDY WITH EXPERT JUDGES
PERCEPÇÃO DE RISCO E MODELAGEM DA COMUNICAÇÃO NA ERA
COVID-19: ESTUDO COM JUÍZES EXPERIENTES
Cruz García Lirios
124
Abstract
The explanatory trajectories of knowledge management of organizations that tend to
balance opportunities and capacities through motivational leadership processes are
specified. A documentary, cross-sectional and non-experimental study was carried out
with a selection of sources indexed to international repositories such as Academia,
Copericus, Dialnet, Fronters, Latindex, Redalyc, Scielo, Scopus and Zenodo, as well as
registered in ISSN-DOI in the period. 2019 to 2021. The dependency relationships
between determining variables - norms, values, beliefs, perceptions - with respect to
knowledge management were modeled. The model explains the balance related to
power and the influence between leaders and followers. Motivational mediating
variables, such as: attitude, intention, skill, and knowledge were included. In relation to
the proposals of the state of knowledge and the literature reviewed, the relevance of
the model compared to other proposals was discussed.
Keywords: Culture, Determinants, Management, Mediation, Model, Specification.
Resumo
São especificadas as trajetórias explicativas da gestão do conhecimento das
organizações que tendem a equilibrar oportunidades e capacidades por meio de
processos de liderança motivacional. Foi realizado um estudo documental, transversal
e não experimental com uma seleção de fontes indexadas em repositórios
internacionais como Academia, Copericus, Dialnet, Fronters, Latindex, Redalyc, Scielo,
Scopus e Zenodo, bem como cadastradas no ISSN- DOI no período. 2019 a 2021. Foram
modeladas as relações de dependência entre variáveis determinantes - normas,
valores, crenças, percepções - no que diz respeito à gestão do conhecimento. O
modelo explicou o equilíbrio entre as relações de poder e influência do líder em
relação aos seus seguidores, incluindo variáveis mediadoras de ordem
motivacional-atitude, intenção, habilidade e conhecimento. Em relação às propostas
do estado do conhecimento e da literatura revisada, foi discutida a relevância do
modelo em relação a outras propostas.
Palavras-chaves: Cultura. Determinantes. Especificação. Gestão. Mediação. Modelo.
124
Doutorado em Psicologia, Professor Titular, Universidade Autônoma do Estado do México, Unidade
Acadêmica Profissional de Huehuetoca, Academia de Serviço Social, Linha de Pesquisa em Governança
Covid-19. E-mail: cgarciali@uaemex.mx ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9364-6796
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Introduction
Until May 2021, Covid-9 caused the death of six million people if the
under-records are considered and three million are inferred, considering the excess of
mortality with respect to the annual average of deaths (WHO, 2021). Se reconocen 250
mil, pero se infieren 450 mil muertes más frente a los promedios de los últimos dos
años (PAHO, 2021). In this context, pandemic mitigation policies have focused on
confinement and social distancing, leading to risk communication focused on the risks
of contagion, illness and death.
The concept of human capital refers to knowledge networks that acquire a
formative, assimilative, technological, individual, motivational and social mobility sense
(GARCÍA, 2018).
Rational choice is limited to a training system where the individual generates
their own opportunities and develops both skills and knowledge based on the utility
and benefit of their decisions (ACAR and ACAR, 2014). In this sense, knowledge
networks burst the human capital to endow it with legitimacy and transparency when
debating and agreeing on the decisions that will benefit a group or community, be it
academic, scientific and/or technological (HERNÁNDEZ et al., 2018).
Competition and cooperation, involved in the formation of human capital, outline
the strategies for balancing demands and resources for knowledge networks.
Knowledge networks determine the symbols and meanings relevant to collaboration
and conflict resolution within innovative groups. In this sense, intelligent systems
promote technological change and organizations must adjust their capacities to the
undertaking of new knowledge (SAANSONGU and NGUTOR, 2012).
The opportunities resulting from the dynamics of innovative networks will
delineate the development of skills and knowledge. It is a process of creating value for
the individual, the collaborative group and the innovative organization (SÁNCHEZ et al.,
2018). Although human capital highlights the importance of individual decisions in
relation to innovation groups, the management culture goes beyond this synergy
because it involves a balance between the values of the company and the leader's
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capacity. Therefore, the specification of a model for the study of the culture of
knowledge management through collaborative networks will explain such complexity.
The objective of this work is to model the perception of risk in the Covid-19 era.
Based on a review of the theoretical, conceptual and empirical frameworks, logical
trajectories were established for the prediction of management in the face of demands
that exceed resources and their optimization is encouraged.
Are there significant differences between the categories and the findings
reported in the literature regarding the qualifications of expert judges in risk
perception and communication?
The premise that guides this work is that the pandemic has had asymmetric
effects between the governors and the governed, affecting the communication of the
public administration and the public perception of the phenomenon (GUILLEN et al.,
2021). The authorities, by betting on a mitigation focused on the spread of
confinement and social distancing, caused a perception of threats, and risks that citizen
have encapsulated in the distrust of their health institutions (RINCON et al., 2021). In
this process, the media have played a fundamental role in contrasting the propaganda
of the State (control and management of Covid-19 reflected in the hospitalized). It is a
logic of verifiability that consists of comparing data from the communiqués of official
press regarding the number of cases higher than the national and annual average
(SANDOVAL et al., 2021). Governments ignore the data, and this lack of transparency
generates the civil undertaking that consists of searching, processing and disseminating
data that the State partially recognizes or exacerbates as the electoral elections
approach.
Theory of risk perception and communication
Organizational culture is understood as a process of dependency between
internal and external variables. It is a scheme in which technology, structure, values,
norms and needs determine the motivational variables - affiliation, power, utility - and
these in turn affect the consequent variables - leadership, management,
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entrepreneurship, innovation, productivity, satisfaction, rotation, absenteeism,
accident rate, adaptation, innovation, reputation.
In this process, the labor culture theory holds that values and norms are the
determinants of consequent variables through mediating and moderating
variables (SALES et al., 2016). Moderator variables can reduce or increase both
negative or positive effects of variables external to the organization. Although the
autocratic culture is distinguished by the one-sidedness of its decisions, in the case of
knowledge, to the extent that autocratic values decrease, they affect the commitment
of loyal workers to the leader. Autocratic management increases the influence of
democratic values when they affect cooperation between employees. That is, the
symbiosis between culture and organizational structure would suppose an asymmetric
relationship between autocratic management and labor collaboration (JANIĆIJEVIĆ,
2013).
The mediating variables are those that only transfer the effects of the values and
the norms on the consequent variables. This is the case of attitudes and intentions that
not only link norms and values with behaviors, but also give them a cultural
meaning. Autocratic values, when linked to obedience and conformity behaviors, are
mediated by one-sided attitudes.
In this way, the theory of organizational culture explains scenarios of consequent
variables based on autocratic or democratic values and norms.
The labor culture supposes indicators that would correspond with the features of
the consequent variables. In this sense, the management culture to be indicated
by self-efficacy, hope, resilience and optimism involves a process of autocratic values
and standards from which emerges a leadership and with it a specialist in
management (VÁZQUEZ et al., 2016).
In the opposite case, the absence of leadership and
management is determined by depersonalization, exhaustion or relative frustration
with unilateral tasks, objectives and goals. Therefore, the theory of labor culture
explains the emergence of management only if norms and values indicate an autocratic
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process from which decisions and strategies are centered on a leader specialized in
management (QUINTERO et al., 2016).
However, organizational management is a more specific process than those
explained by the theory of work culture. A management becomes specific because the
work culture, its values and norms are specific in the objectives and goals of the
management.
Studies of risk perception and communication
Organizational management, unlike the work culture, is a specific process since
it involves ponderable and comparable objectives and goals. In this sense,
organizational management refers to a process of indicators linked to the systematic
monitoring and evaluation of processes, strategies and behaviors. Organizational
management is guided by innovative values and norms. It is a process of systematic
and constant change, according to the contingencies of the environment and therefore
contrary to the vertical and unilateral structure of the autocratic culture (CRUZ et al.,
2016).
However, organizational management derived from the autocratic
culture supposes historically different goals and objectives in the face of innovations
and specific changes. As the organizational management is specified and intensified,
the autocratic culture is reduced to its minimum expression and gives way to a more
participatory culture. Therefore, organizational management involves competition
regarding proposals and monitoring and evaluations (HERNÁNDEZ and
VALENCIA, 2016). It is because of these differences between cultures and management
that the theory of organizational management explains the advent of an innovation
and a change based on the interrelation between power - unilateral decisions and
vertical structures that produce obedience and conformity in the majority - and
influence - intentions of change based on innovations of minorities. That is, those who
make decisions are circumscribed to power and influence relationships as the
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objectives and goals are more specific, but if both are not modified from the
achievement of achievements, then it is an autocratic culture (ROBLES et al., 2016).
In this way, transformational leadership is linked to variables related to the
processes of influence rather than power, since the motivation for effectiveness,
satisfaction and effort means characteristics of concerted management between the
leader and the followers (MENDOZA et al. ., 2016). Or, when communication, cohesion
and support negatively correlate with attrition, depersonalization and dissatisfaction,
but positively impact the commitment, then we witness a scenario in which the
autocratic majority culture interacts with the participation of minorities.
Organizational management theory explains the advent of the interrelationship
between power relations -decisions deciding on the behavior of followers- and
relationships of influence -talents generating opportunities and knowledge-. From both
theories, labor culture and organizational management, it is possible to specify the
logical explanatory trajectories of consequent variables.
Modelling of risk perception and communication
Unlike the culture and work management where fatalistic or optimistic scenarios
are anticipated based on correlations between external variables with respect to
variables internal to the organization, the specification of a model integrates the
variables to infer trajectories of dependency relationships. The specification of a model
supposes a revision of the relations of dependence established in studies of the
prediction of a process, strategy or behavior. It is assumed that the explanatory
variables with respect to the variables to be predicted form a system of logical
trajectories known as the nomological network. In this sense, dependency
relationships explain the nomological networks that are established from a review of
the literature during a given period (GARCÍA et al., 2016).
However, the specification of a model to depend on enough studies related to a
process, strategy or behavior, assumes preponderant trajectories that have not always
been demonstrated by the studies (GARCIA, 2020). Therefore, it is necessary to
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postulate dependency relationships that, since they have not been established logically
or empirically, creativity or intuition can postulate as feasible relationships between
the variables reviewed, or postulate variables that are not conceptualized or weighted
by the state of knowledge. In the case of relationships not established by the literature,
it is possible to infer them from studies in which the variables were conceptualized and
/ or weighted in order to explain other processes, strategies or behavior similar or
different from those that are intended to explain. In the case of variables not used in
the studies of a process, strategy or organizational behavior, it is possible to infer it
from the correlations between indicators.
The specification of a model is made from 1) include the empirical relationships
demonstrated by the literature reviewed and 2) propose variables and relationships
not established by the state of knowledge. In this sense, the studies of culture and
labor management have shown that values and norms are variables external to the
relations of power and influence in an organization.
However, norms and values when interacting with environmental contingencies
are associated with the processing of available information known as beliefs and
perceptions (OMOTAYO and ADENIKE, 2013). The external variables; values, norms,
beliefs and perceptions explain consequent variables such as; entrepreneurship,
innovation, satisfaction, productivity, competitiveness, turnover, absenteeism,
dissatisfaction, unproductivity, compliance or obedience.
However, since the determining variables are indicative of general processes that
would affect specific variables, they must be mediated or moderated by variables such
as attitudes, abilities, opportunities, intentions, knowledge or emotions (GONZALEZ &
TORTOLERO, 2020). The mediating and moderating variables allow to specify and
intensify the effect of the determining variables on the consequent variables. This is
how the culture model of knowledge management would include six explanatory
hypotheses of trajectories of logical relations between the determining variables and
management, mediated by motivation, attitude, intention, skills and knowledge.
These are the studies related to the traditional and transformational leadership
styles in which the difference between external demands and resources optimized by
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the talent of the leader is explained but reducing the participation to a function of
expectation (GARCIA, 2021). Knowledge networks are the result of the interaction
between market demands and the optimization of resources based on information on
possible scenarios. Opportunities and capabilities are concomitant because they derive
from a participatory and competitive culture. In these investigations, the effects of the
surrounding information with respect to culture and management are explained by the
interrelation of the determinant variables with leadership styles, opportunities,
capacities, objectives and goals. The management that proposes feasible scenarios is
studied from the intentionality of its objectives and goals based on information from
the balance between demands and resources. The formation of knowledge networks is
explained by the norms, values, beliefs and perceptions of talents, as well as the
motivation of leaders, the formation of skills, knowledge and attitudes around planned
and systematic decisions.
Method
The literature published from 2019 to 2021 was reviewed. In relation to the
analysis of the state of the art, an exploratory work was proposed and a cross-sectional
study regarding the observation threshold, considering that the phenomenon is
permanent.
A search of articles in indexed repositories: 1) Academia, 2) Copernicus, 3)
Dialnet, 4) Ebsco, 5 ) Frontiers, 6) Latindex, 7) Redalyc, 8) Scielo, 9) Scopus y 10) Zenodo
was carried out, considering the analysis period, as well as the keywords: a) risk
perception and b) risk communication. From a total of 320 abstracts, 6 were selected
that made up the analysis sample related to the perception of knowledge as part of the
formation of intellectual capital.
The opinion questionnaire, content analysis and Delphi technique were used for
data analysis and information processing, considering the period of observation and
systematization of the state of knowledge.
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Opinion Questionnaire. It included questions related to risk communication,
considering the findings regarding the effect of the confinement strategy on
teleworking, social distancing on the perception of contagion and public trust towards
the application of tests or vaccines.
Content Analysis. A keyword search was carried out in www.google.scholar in
order to be able to select the abstracts and process the data according to the
qualification of expert judges (attached to the transdisciplinary academic network) on
the subject. A value of -1 was assigned to the summaries that reported the perception
of knowledge as an exogenous process to the formation of intellectual capital, with 0
for those who only mentioned the concept and +1 for those who modeled the term as
a variable.
Delphi Technique. In three rounds; 1) qualifying where the expert judges
assigned a negative value to the communication of distant risks to the data of
infections and deaths, as well as a positive value to the communication adjusted to the
data of the Ministry of Health of the State of Mexico; 2) feedback where individual
grades are compared to the general average; 3) reconsideration when personal criteria
are adjusted to the general average.
The analysis package for social sciences version 23.0 was used considering the
parameters of normal distribution, contingency, proportion, adjustment and residual in
order to be able to observe the relationships between categories and analyzed
findings, as well as their structural configuration.
Results
Table 1 shows the exclusion criteria: risk perception and communication.
Perception refers to short-term expectations about vaccines. The communication
suggests medium-term expectations about vaccines.
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Table 1. Descriptive data
Repository
Category 1
Category 2
2019
2020
2021
2019
2020
2021
Academia
3
1
5
3
3
1
Copernicus
4
2
4
2
2
2
Dialnet
2
3
3
4
2
3
Ebsco
5
5
5
2
2
1
Frontiers
3
4
2
2
1
4
Latindex
1
1
4
1
3
3
Redalyc
4
2
3
3
3
5
Scielo
3
3
5
4
0
4
Scopus
0
0
0
0
0
0
Zenodo
0
2
1
0
5
1
Note: Elaborated with data study; Category 1 = Perception of Risk, C2 = Communication of risk
Table 2 shows a distribution that tends to be normal, making it possible to
perform contingency analysis to test hypotheses.
Table 2. Descriptive of instrument
E
M
SD
C1
C2
χ2
df
P
χ2
df
p
SANCHEZ et al., (2020)
e1
,783
,180
14,21
12
,01
10,32
12
,01
GARCIA (2019)
e2
,943
,105
15,46
11
,02
18,32
11
,05
GARCIA (2020)
e3
,547
,156
13,24
15
,04
19,45
16
,08
GARCIA et al., (2019)
e4
,672
,134
10,32
16
,09
12,13
15
,02
GARCIA (2021)
e5
,832
,158
14,32
10
,07
10,43
10
,04
LOPEZ (2019)
e6
,704
,120
19,32
12
,03
13,21
11
,01
Note: Elaborated with data study; E = Extract, M = Mean, SD = Standard deviation, C = category,
C1 = Perception of Risk, C2 = Communication of Risk
To find and be able to establish the axes of discussion around the ten selected
extracts in risk thresholds, we proceeded to estimate the matrix of probability
proportions (see Table 3).
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Table 3. Odds ratios among selected press releases by month during the
pandemicFreire (2013, p. 40)
n1
n2
n3
n4
n5
n6
e1
12,34 (10,21
18,43)
e2
14,32 (13,23
19,45)
10,21 (14,32
17,45)
e3
13,21 (10,45
15,49)
15,46 (11,90
19,34)
15,46 (12,13
14,35)
e4
14,35 (12,13
15,46)
15,46 (10,45
18,34)
14,23 (10,45
18,21)
15,46 (12,13
19,45)
e5
14,23 (14,35
19,56)
16,57 (13,24
19,54)
13,24 (10,45
17,45)
13,24 (14,32
15,40)
11,23 (14,35
19,54)
e6
14,56 (13,24
15,46)
15,43 (17,34
19,45)
14,35 (10,43
18,43)
12,13 (15,46
18,53)
19,43 (14,35
18,21)
14,32 (12,34
17,43)
Note: Elaborated with data study; e1 = SANCHEZ et al., (2020), e2 = GARCIA (2019), e3 = GARCIA (2020),
e4 = GARCIA et al., (2019), e5 = GARCIA (2021), e6 = LOPEZ (2019).
Once the probability ratio matrix was established, which indicates that the
consultation decisions of the selected literature are at the permissible risk threshold
for decision-making, a model of structural equations was estimated in order to
appreciate its composition of categories and extracts (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. Structural equation modelling
Note: Elaborated with data study; C1 = Perception of Risk, C2 = Communication of Risk, e1 =
SANCHEZ et al., (2020), e2 = GARCIA (2019), e3 = GARCIA (2020), e4 = GARCIA et al., (2019), e5 = GARCIA
(2021), e6 = LOPEZ (2019).
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The adjustment and residual parameters 〔𝜒2= 13,24 (13df) p > ,05; NFI = ,997; CFI
= ,990; RMSEA = ,006〕suggest the non-rejection of the null hypothesis relative to the
significant differences between the models reported in the literature with respect to
the structure established in the present work.
Discussion
The contribution of this work to the situation lies in the modeling of the
perception of knowledge, if the literature consulted links this process to the formation
of intellectual capital, as well as to the management of entrepreneurship and
innovation. In relation to the theoretical, conceptual and empirical frameworks, the
inclusion of organizational culture as a mediator of the demands of the environment
and the structural representation of organizational resources is recommended.
The modeling of the perception and communication of risks was contrasted with
three references of the six selected for analysis with experts. This is so because these
three studies refer to both categories as mediators of anti-Covid-19 policies.
PEREZ et al., (2016: p. 7) suggested that the estimation of decision thresholds be
established from a modeling of trajectories, but in the present work the relationships
between the categories and the extracts at least indicate a complex structure of data
that can be actionable, but adjustable to the decision criteria in the evidence.
AGUILLAR et al., (2018: p. 25) They consider knowledge management as a source
of data that can be materialized in task protocols for the achievement of objectives
discernible to goals, although in the present work it is noted that the perception of risk
is linked to knowledge management. The influence of the pandemic seems to have
established a more permissible threshold of risks for knowledge managers than are
reported in the state of the art.
GARCIA (2021; p. 31) suggests risk management thresholds whose decisions are
legitimized based on the codification of objectives, tasks and goals, but in this work it
has been shown that risk perception is linked to knowledge management in the
selected literature, differentiating itself as an alternate process and a clear impact on
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performance. Research lines related to risk management will clarify the limits of
intention to carry out a task based on data-oriented goals.
Lines concerning risk perception and knowledge management will make it
possible to warn of the risk thresholds related to decisions to train intellectual capital
in health contingencies such as the SARS CoV-2 pandemic and the Covid-19 disease.
The contribution of the present work to the state of knowledge consists in the
specification of the relations and the logical trajectories between the cultural variables
that determine the management of knowledge through mediating variables. However,
the possible relationships between the variables included in the model suppose more
explanations that can be compared with the established ones. In this sense, the debate
around the direct determination of the management from the norms, values, beliefs
and perceptions contrasts with the specification of the present model, since the
mediating variables could be suppressed in autocratic organizations and diversified into
participative organizations. Therefore, the specification of the model explains the
culture and management of organizations balanced between their demands and
resources, opportunities and capacities, power and influence. In contexts of
uncertainty, scarcity and risk, organizations tend to be more participatory and require
models of culture and management that are more diverse, specific and innovative.
Even when the environment is uncertain, organizations have based their
emergence and persistence on the balance between their processes. The objectives
and goals of the organizations not only reflect their culture, but also base their human
essence, since leaders and followers are the central elements of their intentions and
products.
Conclusion
The model can be made from six references that explain the asymmetries
between rulers and ruled in the face of the pandemic. Such proposal lies in the
establishment of two perceptual categories around which six findings converge,
reflecting the logic of citizen verifiability that emerges from the lack of transparency of
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the State regarding the pandemic. In this sense, expert judges corroborate the
assumption according to which the rulers ignore the data of the ministries and
statistical institutions regarding infection, disease and deaths from Covid-19. In such a
scenario, the media is a contrast to government propaganda that minimizes or
overlooks the differences between official records and their press releases, statements,
or conferences.
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Data do aceite: 10/11/21
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