Efeitos de programas municipais com moeda social sobre o mercado formal de trabalho antes e após a pandemia de COVID-19: um estudo de caso da moeda mumbuca no Município de Maricá - RJ

Abstract

This study sought to verify the effects of social programs linked to the Mumbuca social currency, between 2018 and 2022, on the formal job market in the municipality of Maricá, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The analyzes were carried out in two stages: i) based on descriptive tabulations of the monthly flow of formal employment contracts, comparing Maricá’s performance with that of the rest of the state of Rio de Janeiro; ii) with the synthetic control method, to identify what would have happened if social currency programs had not been adopted and expanded as a way of containing the perverse effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Results suggest that Maricá performed well above the rest of the state both before and after the start of the pandemic, which indicates that the social programs reformulated from 2018 onwards maintained their positive impact on the municipal job market. However, it was not possible to state that its expansion since the beginning of the pandemic has generated
additional effects on this labor dynamic in the municipality, which does not imply that the effects are not positive for its beneficiaries in other spheres of analysis.