PRECIPITATION OVER MARAJÓ-PA: ANALYSIS AND TREND OF CLIMATE CHANGES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22409/GEOgraphia2026.v28i60.a59100Keywords:
Mann-Kendall (MK), Climate, non-parametric testsAbstract
Long-term rainfall monitoring plays a vital role in managing water resources, preventing and mitigating disasters. In the Amazon region, extreme precipitation events cause important impacts, mainly on the nuclei of population occupation on the banks of its numerous rivers, which make it impossible to cultivate crops, and to move out and access communities to obtain food and receive help. This study aims to identify the precipitation climatology in the Marajó mesoregion, in Pará, and to assess whether there is a significant precipitation trend, using data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) belonging to the National Center Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which contains precipitation data measured on the surface and estimated by satellite. The study period was from 1979 to 2020 and this dataset was used due to the very low density of rain gauges in the region. The methodology proposed by Mann-Kendall (MK) was applied, which is the most appropriate test to analyze climate change in climatological series. Regarding the trend indices for the reduction and increase of precipitation over the region, it was seen that in most of the region there was a trend of reduction in the volume of precipitation, both on an annual and seasonal scale during the analyzed period.
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