MODELING FUTURE URBAN EXPANSION SCENARIOS IN PARATY MUNICIPALITY USING CELLULAR AUTOMATA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22409/GEOgraphia2024.v26i56.a59381Keywords:
Urban models, Cellular automata, Geotechnologies, Scenario simulation, Transition of land coverAbstract
Based on cellular automata, this work aims at modeling future urban expansion scenarios in Paraty municipality/RJ, in reason of its importance at regional levels due to tourism development and its recent urban growth. A modeling was performed in the software DINAMICA EGO with insertion of variables that influence the model in order to reproduce or repel the urban spots through the sum of the weights of evidence. Supported by the result of the process, a scenario was created for the year 2030, which followed the same trend of built areas concentration in and around the city center and scattered urban centers along BR-101. In short, the modeling proved to be satisfactory and consistent with the transitions of occupation observed in past periods, also demonstrating the importance of using urban growth planning analysis tools, which can be aided by the application of geotechnologies, as well as, for the management and planning of land cover and use.
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