THE DAM BREAK OF VALE'S TAILINGS DAM IN BRUMADINHO (2019) AND CHANGES IN VOTING BETWEEN THE 2018 AND 2022 ELECTIONS

Abstract

The research aims to understand shifts in voting expression following the Brumadinho dam disaster in Minas Gerais (MG). Drawing on debates in Electoral Geography, the study considers how a territory that has experienced a catastrophe articulates its political space through its choice of representatives. The empirical scope focused on analyzing local voting patterns in the election immediately preceding (2018) and following (2022) the dam collapse in 2019, covering both executive and legislative offices at the state and federal levels. The methodology relies on identifying political parties based on distinctions within the political-ideological spectrum, used as a metric to understand each party’s movement within a cohesive set, allowing for comparisons. Results indicate a shift in voter behavior post-disaster, with decreased support for centrist and center-right candidates and a corresponding increase in votes for left-wing and far-right parties. Additionally, voting trends suggest a search for localized solutions, reflected in strong support for political figures associated with the disaster and socio-environmental agendas. The findings also highlight the need for further studies to understand other local issues, such as the inverse relationship between the increase in the number of voters and the decrease in the Brumadinho population.